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Jun 2, 2012

Why Assad May Not Fall

    I have to say this. I’ll explain later. There’s no shortage news/op-eds/analyses that Assad would fall. I’m less sure. I was told Assad regime is running out of money and the economic sanctions are causing pain.
But few people are answering an equally important question. What’s next after Assad fall? Remember Syria consists of many sectarians hostile to one another. Shiite, Sunni, Druze and Christian, Alawites, to name a few. They would be fighting for economic pie after the Assad is ousted.
I read a wise op-ed by Hennery Kissinger in the Washington Post today. Military intervention is not a smart idea. I believe one of the main reasons why Obama and the like are reluctant to intervene to Syria is that they don’t know what to do next.

As I am typing this article, the middle class and the military still sticks to the regime for a very simple reason. They would not survive after post-Assad regime. Don’t kid yourself. No matters how crippling the sanction is, that regime would not fall, unless with outside military intervention.
And America may get bogged down in Syria, should she intervenes. Iran would become more supportive of Sunni in the Syria and bleed not only outsiders but also the Syrian people of different beliefs. She surely would seek to advance the interests there. Oh! I just knew a very disturbing fact of Obama policy on Iran.
I heard it’s going to be OK. When Assad is ousted, everything would be fine. Things are manageable. That’s wishful thinking. I hear this song before. Is it Iraq?
One of the most realistic scenario is power sharing through negotiation. Political scientists David F. Gordon andStephen D. Krasner proposed the West and Friends of Syria put on more sanctions through the refusal to recognize any contracts signed by Syrian government. Putting up more pressure to bring Assad to table and negotiate a way out. Syria should be the next Lebanon, not Libya. No Military intervention with no end insight and what would come next. Oh! Dr. Stephen D. Krasner. I read some of his works and am now reading his most influential book. Sovereignty:Organized Hypocrisy. Want to learn more about Lebanon and Syria. And Why Lebanon model should apply to Syria. You may find this book very interesting.  From Beirut to Jerusalem by Tom Friedman. Assad may fall but Assadnism  would Not.