I Know What Will Change North Korea

I know it’s too late for this time to write an article on North Korea. Better late than never!  I was preoccupied with midterm exams. But I was also following the news.

Will Kim Jung En be able to consolidate power? Who is really in charge of? A number of media outlets questioned those “less important” issues.  I don’t think conflicts over leadership will lead the collapse of North Korea. Supposed that it does, China would come in and prop up the ones she thinks it’s in her best interests in the case of disorderly breakup. North Korea is still North Korea.

Most of us agree the spring is highly unlikely. Still, I think there is at least a way to get North Korea changed. Bring Capitalism to North Korea! There are encouraging signs Capitalism is creeping into North Korea. Kaesong complex and a major resort owned by Hyundai are good examples.

Don’t take it for granted.  Some North Koreans are getting the sense of capitalism. The best case scenario for North Korea is another China, state capitalism. When people are better informed, they become more demanding. The more Korea Koreans are informed, the closer its leader face the Do or Die dilemma. If you are still unsettled, take a closer look on China.

Sure enough, they won’t change easily. We have to force them to change. There should have been a discussion over the reopening of that resort during Hyundai chairwomen visit to North Korea, as media speculated. That could be very encouraging.
The poor pay the ultimate price for economic sanctions for the West. This is not to say I support sanctions lifting. The dark side of the sanctions is that it makes the people poor. What is happening when they are poor? They become less demanding. They are less interested in what their leaders are doing.

As Nicholas Kristof put in the New York Times: “American officials blame China for coddling North Korea, but at least Beijing has a strategy. It is to encourage the Kim regime to replicate the opening and reform policies that transformed China itself. These days, Chinese traders, cellphones, DVDs and CDs are already common in border areas of North Korea, doing more to undermine Kim rule than any policy of the United States.”

I didn’t agree with him on the last sentence. It’s dangerous if US keeps doing business while not making sure the surpluses enjoyed by Pyongyang are not being used to develop nuclear capacities. I’m glad US started to offer humanitarian aid again. And I just learnt Russian is interested developing pipelines through North Korea to supply the gas to South Korea. Hey, it’s a good move. 

I think you learnt from the news a number of North Koreans cry over Kim’s death. Are they completely brainwashed? May be not! A friend of mind working with refugees from North Korea told me a very interesting fact.

He said they are not completely brainwashed. Pirated DVDs from China info them about outside world (especially for people living in the City). They are better informed, he went on. What is problematic is that there is no civil society so that they can demand for changes.

When China, South Korea, US, Russia and Japan start to do their parts, I think we can bring about changes. Stating to do business with North Korea means we are weakening the regime for betterment, but only after making sure gain in business doesn’t go to the nuclear programs. How? I’m searching for the answers.

Russia Still Needs Putin

I finally can manage the time to write an article.  Putin has brought stability to Russia although sometimes with his iron fist. He fails to decrease the feelings of fear among Russian people. Journalists are being killed. Media is working to Kremlin advantage. A number of people officials get rich without hard work.

I’m not saying he does or manages it. But all things happen under his watch.  I think each country needs free press and empowered citizens to keep the Government in check and to hold Government officials accountable.

I don’t think the demonstrations would trigger regime change happened in some Arab countries.  But I do believe it could make some necessary changes, supposed that the momentum is not losing.  They of course have to pay the price as there have been reports hundreds have been jailed.

Enough Said. 

At the same time, Russia still needs Putin to also make necessary changes. Some moves are politically impossible for democracies like the West. Obama failed to get the American Jobs Act passed because of the system of checks and balances. US needs to be less democratic and Russia needs to be more democratic. If the problems American is facing now are Soviet’s, it would be less time-consuming. Eurozone’s recent deal is also a good example.

Through his unbalanced power, he is able to allocate resources to advance the preconditions for future growth. Scholars living in developing countries understand well about this. Yeah, His government, in some ways, is a corrupted, bureaucratic one. Luckily, Russian people are trying to rectify it. I hope they are successful without paying a heavy price.

Russia will still need him in case he gradually open Russia to democracy and get rid of corruption and promote a system based on meritocracy. He has to some homework if he is to stay in power.

Regarding Secretary Clinton’s criticism of Russian election, I think she just paid lip service. And Putin responded to her criticism in a good mood also. It was the media and some people who overreact. It was a tit-for-tat attack. It’s building up the distrust, misunderstanding and misperceptions between both countries. It’s the technology advancement, stupid.

I don’t subscribe to the view the relations between Russian and US will be shaken if Putin is elected. The relations won’t be greatly changed. He has always been in charge. Russian needs to be more democratic and the Russian people are fighting for it. I’m on their side.  

If ones want things to stay the same, things have to be changed. Most Russians are not anti-Putin but they are fed up with him. Putin must make changes.

Is Germany Saving the Euro?

One of the most dangerous fallacies of our time is that austerity will spur growth. Wait, I’m not a neo –Keynes. The notion austerity will grow growth is just a pretext European politicians use to appease the people when their countries are in the process of painful structural adjustment programs.

It makes their economy more competitive in the long run, although it’s at the expense of near and medium growth. As I like to say, they still need to spend at the end of the day, after adjustment programs are finished.

For most European countries, the debt-to GDP ratio is very large. They need to cut first and spend later. The woes in Eurozone are caused by its politicians.  The politicians promise they will offer carrots to voter once they are elected. After being elected, they deliver the promises to get more vote ballots.

As one can notice, the social welfare is too generous. Subsidies, early retirement age, longer vocations, to name a few, have been contributing to high debt.  Most politicians have been doing this for a long time. As time passes by, the economy becomes less competitive and the debt turns unsustainable. When the crisis hit, they chose to cut first. It’s putting a drag on global economic recovery. 

If there were a coordinated effort to urge countries to spend altogether, we may have got out of this mess. Chancellor Merkel recently made it clear she wants a fiscal union. It’s a really, really a good idea. More stricter and binding rules for all countries belong to Eurozone.  I believe the main motivation behind a fiscal union is the fear of the breakup of Eurozone.

If the fiscal rules are not strict and binding, the debt will continue to grow. It will explode at some point. Yeah, the rich countries could bail the debt-hit-countries out. But its policy is not always working and fast enough. And each country is refrained from printing money. So, the only solution is to default and devalue.  The bottom line is Eurozone breakup, if the nothing is done.

Good idea. But I’m not sure if it comes at the right time. Mrs. Merkel offers no quick fixes on current crises. She said it likes a marathon. It will take years to solve the crisis. Everyone, save Germany, is exhausted and can’t continue to run a marathon anymore. If the economy doesn’t grow for too long, some countries may choose to default and devalue too. 

I think Germany really needs to soften the position. Some of the austerity measures should be lifted to give modest growth a chance. It would reduce the backlash against the measures and of course Germany itself. Fiscal union is a good idea. At the same time,  Time is running out too fast.

Countries interested in fiscal union must do something to make sure they have enough time to get it done.  Lifting some austerity measures is just a suggestion. I’m not familiar with Eurozone. I think they can do more than that.  Patients being sick need to take some rest to prepare for another long journey. Yes and No, I’m not sure if Germany is saving the Euro.  The media will unfold it anytime soon.