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Oct 24, 2010

The Great Recession and Its Implication for the World

 Emerging from the harness of global financial crisis,the world economy is being haunted by fear of double-dip recession.Not only has the sluggishness of US economic growth been threatening global economic growth prospect, but also it has put every country long run interest at stake.In addition to the worst, the extraordinarily whooping debts of European Countries and Japan vividly indicate that second wave of Domino Effect is anything but an unlikely scenario.None of the aforesaid issues are far from making headlines.
  On the contrary, i believe that ,rather than in holding pattern or in crisis,global economy is in transition.The collapse of Lehman Brothers served as a powerful finishing touch to the tranformation of global growth paradigm.So severe as the crisis was,China,AKA World Factory,is able to maintain its status as a rising star.The core end of US-made crisis is to promote china rises;hence,China is nearly untouched.
  By the same token,Brazil and India are on a par with their counterpart.Should Emerging Market not grow fast enough,US will run a risk of long-term trade deficit.Lo and Behold,the Economic Miracle of China,Brazil and India,albeit during the crisis,will enable greater flow of trade and services which is at the expense of no country.
  Above all,the economic crisis also gave rise to the reform of US financial market which is otherwise ,given the status quo,difficult to initiate ,let alone come into effect.Moreover, It is a highly likely scenario that US,in conjuction with other advanced countries,will find a way of cutting back on budget deficit by taxing the banks.
  Many analysts predict that EU influences will greatly diminish thanks to its frail economic growth.Conversely,it is not the case.Economic crisis is the best pretext for most of European Governments to lauch austerity measures resulting hundred million dollars of savings,the amount of which will offset previous negative economic growth.
  Russia is an exception.Russian economic growth during the crisis time is not that strong.At the same time,economic crisis is sending a meaningful message to Kremlin that its current economic structure is no longer in its best interest.So, i expect that Russia will experience economic structure reshuffle at some point in the future. 
 Last but not least, all indispensable players get the blessings,rather than curse, from the economic crisis and the rest of the world,on the back of knock-on effect,vice versa.